Why should all of northeastern Missouri have concerns regarding wind energy? This is the ultimate question. It is going to take more than one post to fully answer that question, but we will start with why northeastern Missouri may be a target for wind.
To begin, one might think that NEMO has "a lot of wind." That it has abundant wind to use as a resource. Why else would they start with a 400 MW, 175 turbine project? To tell the truth, northeastern Missouri does not have plentiful wind, to use as an energy, electricity producing system. We will start with the Wind Resource Maps. These are provided by the Office of Energy Efficient and Renewable Energy. It is an informative site that tells you things like: Missouri has 959 MW of installed wind capacity but only accounts for 3.48% of the fuel mix in Missouri or that northeast Missouri's annual average wind speed at 80 meters (262 feet) is 6.5 to 7.5 m/s (14.5 to 16.7 mph). There is also a map that shows "Potential Wind Capacity at 140 m Hub Height: 35% or High Gross Capacity Factor." Wait..."Potential?" This means, they aren't sure, but they hope that turbines with a hub height of 459 feet or higher will have a capacity factor of 35% or more. According to this map, northeast Missouri is a smart choice for wind energy.
We were talking about wind speed and jumped to capacity factor. What is capacity factor? The capacity factor is a measure of the ratio of the electrical energy produced compared to what could have been produced at continuous full power during a time period. The average capacity factor of all wind turbines in the United States through October 2019 was 34.8%. How could this be? Wind turbines need an ideal, constant wind speed to produce electricity. "Ideal" and "constant" are things that wind is not. Also, remember that wind is not dispatch-able. For the turbines in the High Prairie project, as these are the turbines we have the most information about, their ideal wind speed is 22 to 36 mph. They are up to 499 feet tall from the base to the tip of the blade, and we believe the hub height for these turbines will be 92 meters. If you recall, the average wind speed in northeastern Missouri at 80 meters is 14.5 to 16.7 mph. What does this mean? It means a less than impressive capacity factor. This does not mean the turbines won't be turning, as their cut in or start up speed is 6.7 mph, but it means for wind speeds of less than 22 mph, they are not producing electricity to their full capacity. Also, as turbines age, their output declines. A study from the United Kingdom found that turbines lose approximately 1.6% of their output per year. This equates to 12% over twenty years which increases the cost of electricity by 9% over the same time period. These findings make sense as we are talking about large industrial, mechanical equipment. Vestas' website provides specific details regarding the V112 and V120.
To put this into perspective, we compiled data from the Berkeley Lab to show the capacity factor of wind projects in Missouri. When looking at this chart, remember that all of these turbines are located in Northwestern Missouri, which has wind speeds at 80 meters of 16.7 to 17.9 mph (this is more than NEMO).
As you wrap your head around the capacity factor, there is another reason that residents of Northeast Missouri should be concerned about the potential for additional wind facilities. The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) is "the grid" that services a significant portion of Northeast Missouri. They provide a wonderful map that shows projects in the queue - potential projects that will need connection to the grid.
Here is additional information about these pending projects:
Why would they put wind projects in these areas?
The Mark Twain Transmission Line, which was it's own source of contempt across five counties in Northeastern Missouri.
The Grain Belt Express is a current source of contempt across many Missouri counties.
Note the location of these transmission lines in relation to the projects in the MISO Queue.
There are two additional reasons that residents of northeast Missouri should be concerned regarding wind energy: Missouri's Renewable Energy Mandate and Production Tax Credits.
The Renewable Energy Mandate was voter approved in 2008. It requires that investor owned utilities (Ameren, Liberty aka Empire and Evergy) provide 15% of their electricity sales from renewable sources by 2021. Prior to the initiative going to the ballot, “Tim Fox, a spokesman for AmerenUE has said that the company cannot endorse the mandates. He said in order for the energy to be effective the company would need a lot of land, plenty of wind and a way to connect them to a power transmission system. AmerenUE said it would prefer a market demand rather than a government mandate for cleaner energy." In their report to the Public Service Commission (PSC) for the High Prairie project, Ameren admitted that they were only building the High Prairie project in order to satisfy the Renewable Energy Mandate, otherwise they have enough fuel sources to provide consistent, reliable energy to their customers. Fifteen percent may not seem concerning, however, there is currently an initiative that may be on the ballot in November 2020. It says,
"In 2008, Missouri Proposition C was approved, which required investor-owned electric utilities (IOUs) to acquire 15 percent of their electricity from renewable energy sources by 2021. James Owen proposed several ballot initiatives to increase the state's RPS from 15 percent.
**Initiative 2020-113 was designed to increase the RPS to 50 percent by 2040.
**Initiative 2020-114 was designed to increase the RPS to 50 percent by 2035.
**Initiative 2020-115 was designed to increase the RPS to 100 percent by 2050.
**Initiative 2020-116 was designed to increase the RPS to 100 percent by 2050."
At the end of 2018, only 4.82% of Missouri's fuel mix came from renewable energy (this includes wind, solar, hydro and biomass). Missouri has a long way to go to meet the 15% requirement. Can you imagine 50% or even 100% by 2050??
Finally, the Production Tax Credits. This topic will likely receive a separate blog post of its own, so we won't go into too much detail now. However, it is important to know that the production tax credits for wind energy were due to expire and begin phasing out at the end of December 2019. In the final hours, Congress extended and increased the Production Tax Credits. Now, "wind developers can now qualify for the production tax credit through 2020 — a year longer than anticipated. Developers qualifying projects in 2020 will receive 60 percent of the PTC if they bring those projects online by the end of 2024. Projects qualified in 2019 will still receive only 40 percent of the incentive." Ameren reported to the PSC during the High Prairie project's certification process that they expected to receive $400 million in production tax credits for this project. The cost of the High Prairie project is expected to be around $650 million. With that said, expect an attempted surge of wind in 2020.
What concerns us further regarding the chance for wind projects in Northeast Missouri, is that we know there are approximately 19,000 acres signed for an additional wind project in Schuyler County, known as the Blue Star Wind Project. We also know that there is a company in Knox County, known as Tenaska, who has been harassing land owners and has been wooing Knox County Commissioners. Tenaska is likely working for Ameren, as the MISO Queue shoes that Ameren Illinois has a project in the queue for Knox County. We have been told that there are companies asking for lease agreements in northern Adair County as well. Also, there is at least a history of lease agreements in Sullivan County. Though the permits for the turbines in the below picture are no longer valid, it shows that wind energy had a significant start in Sullivan County in the past.
Be Aware. Ask Questions. Talk to Your Neighbor. Proceed with Caution.